1. The Sri Lankan government seems to be desperately seeking foreign intervention following its recent military defeats in the North. How serious is the crisis it faces? Have there been cracks in the PA?
Sri Lanka is currently facing one of its worst politico-military crises. The LTTE is poised to capture the entire Jaffna peninsula. Following its victories at Elephant Pass and Pallai, the LTTE have captured a large amount of arms.
The government has made a worldwide appeal for arms and other forms of military assistance; it has imposed the most anti-democratic regulations on the entire Sri Lankan society. Curtailing freedom of expression had been there for a long time, but it did not help in fighting against the LTTE; rather it helped to hide the inefficiencies and defeats from the people in the south of Sri Lanka. Current censorship and security laws enforced will not allow any criticism of the President and/or the government. This is the first time, I believe, such regulations are enforced in Sri Lanka. I do not believe for a moment that this is going to help in the war against the LTTE. Rather this will be used against the entire society, especially in the south, when it is necessary. Friends for Peace in Sri Lanka in its last press release alerted that this sort of situation could arise. Now it is increasingly becoming a reality.
There are several possible scenarios under the current circumstances.
1. As the Sri Lanka government has successfully gained military cooperation against the LTTE with Israel, Pakistan, Russia, India, and other countries, it may be able to push back the LTTE further southwards from the areas recently captured by the LTTE. This will lead to a long-term involvement of these countries and Sri Lanka may become a testing ground for latest high technology weapons as happened in the Vietnam War. Though such a scenario is not favourable towards the LTTE in the short term, it will run in favour of the LTTE in the long term. Diversion of non-essential development funds to the war effort, bans on trade unions and other political organisations to criticise, engagement in peaceful agitation and opposition, publishing news items that are against the interests of the president and the government will add to the discontentment already existing in the south of the country. This could boil over as happened in Sri Lanka twice before, in 1971, and in 1989. The war will continue as an unwinnable one for all the parties engaged in the war effort. Politically and economically, this will be disastrous for the ordinary people of Sri Lanka.
2. Another possible scenario is that even with foreign military assistance, the government and its mercenary groups may not be able to halt the advances of the LTTE towards recapturing Jaffna. For example, Israel may encounter logistical problems such as the unknown terrain, language, supply routes etc. It will be a different situation from the Middle East. India’s military assistance (in the form of medical or humanitarian assistance) could also fall into the LTTE hands.
3. The continued advancement of the LTTE may end up in two possible scenarios:
q Government troops and its vigilante and mercenary groups may have to retreat towards the south of the country. This will lead to a never-ending war situation. The government may continue its draconian repressive environment. The LTTE may not have a long-term military advantage in such a situation, but they may gain some psychological and political advantage. Government may continue to hold onto power without holding general elections and this will lead to increasing frustrations in the south. Even if the elections are held, in the background of the draconian powers the government has armed itself with it will never be a fair election. As we had prior to 1994, the war situation will drag on, the economy will be in tatters; or
q The government may hold parliamentary elections but after creating a “Putin scenario”. The government may do like what the Russian government did in Chechnya, carpet bomb entire Jaffna, as some generals have earlier suggested; then make use of it to generate sensational chauvinist election propaganda and win a majority of votes in the south? Putin has set a precedent in this regard.
q If government troops cannot be evacuated in time they could fight unto the death of last soldier or surrender to the LTTE and could become prisoners of war. This will be politically disastrous to the government and will serve the opposition forces better. If the government decides to continue with the war a disastrous situation could arise. If the government troops do not wish to fight the LTTE anymore and they do not wish to surrender, there is a remote possibility that they could turn against the government and join hands with the LTTE; they could march towards Colombo. Such a scenario is highly unlikely but cannot be ruled out. This would not lead to a socialist type of a revolution as happened in Russia in 1917, but who knows, history can repeat in a different form.
4. Other possible scenario is if the war becomes a long-term military conflict with the involvement of international military blocs. There is a possibility that some may support the LTTE, and some may support the government resulting Sri Lanka becoming a modern-day Vietnam. The internal conflict of Sri Lanka that could have been resolved with the support of a third party (such as Norway or any other country acceptable to the warring parties) and by developing appropriate structures to sharing the sovereignty of the land among the Sri Lankan peoples themselves, has been made to grow into a complex regional conflict that may eventually force Sri Lanka into sharing its sovereignty with non-Sri Lankans. Other countries will not come and engage in war in Sri Lanka for nothing!
5. Personally, I believe in a completely different subjective scenario. That is, the government and the LTTE should be made to declare a truce and the government troops that are surrounded by the LTTE made to evacuate without much further loss of lives on both sides. It is the young people of both Sinhala and Tamil peoples that are getting killed in this unjust and senseless war. Then the president could use her enormous draconian powers (Sri Lankan presidency is the most powerful executive in the whole world) to bring out a proposition acceptable to the Tamil people, with the involvement of the UN, and enforce it by presidential decree. This proposition should be based on the universal principles of justice and equality, with the acceptance of the right of Tamil people to self-determination. If the LTTE continues to fight after such an event the Tamil people themselves will marginalise the LTTE; the government will not have to engage the LTTE politically or militarily. The extreme forces which demand the complete annihilation of Tamils or complete separation and nothing, but separation type of solutions is small in numbers among both peoples. But the government has a paramount duty to impose a solution that the Tamil people could rely upon. So far, the government has done nothing to convince the Tamil people of its sincerity. The general opinion among not only Tamils but also among others who value justice and fairness is that the government has been playing for time and playing games with the lives of people to get international aid. I do not believe that this sort of a thing will be a priority of the current government.
About cracks in the government, so far there is no news. I would not be surprised if nothing happens. The traditional left parties are very experienced in this type of games. In 1971 they were in the government when a similar situation arose in the south of Sri Lanka. Actually, this is a good parallel situation. From the Soviet Union (then communist), China to the USA and including India, Pakistan and Singapore helped the government of the day. India secretly committed its troops to fight Sri Lanka’s internal war. The LSSP or the CP has so far not looked at this in a self-critical manner. And now they are going through a similar phase. If they leave the government, there is no future for them, they believe. But we have to wait and see what happens when the Sri Lankan parliament meets on 10 May.
On the other hand, there are Tamil political parties based in Colombo, which continue to support the government. It will be interesting to see their position, in a situation where the government has unleashed its highest ever repressive force against the Tamils and other non-government political forces in the south.
So whatever way I look at it, it is a pretty bleak situation for the people of Sri Lanka.
2. What options does the Sri Lankan government have if it cannot reverse the military situation in the North?
As I said before the most appropriate and the wisest step the government could take is to minimise the loss of lives in the war by making the LTTE to agree to declare a truce and then de-escalate the war. The government must accept that Sri Lanka is a home for the Sinhalese and Tamils and for all those who were born or settled down for good in Sri Lanka and that they are equals before the supreme law of the country. The extreme forces in the south thwarted all such attempts in the fifties when Bandaranaike-Chelvanayakam pact was signed, in the sixties when Dudley-Chelvanayakam pact was signed. The vociferous extreme groups ganged together with the politicians of the opposition at the time destroyed these pacts unilaterally. They made the government expel all the Tamil MPs who represented in the Parliament the interests of the Tamil people. Now they say Tamils should come back to the peaceful ways of Parliament. What a hypocrisy this is? Whatever it is, this government has gone along the same path as the governments of Bandaranaike and Dudley. This government could have made history if they wished to, but it did not do so. The political parties when in opposition have always pledged to solve the problem of the Tamil people when they come to power. However, after coming to power they have made the situation worse than it was before. This has continued during the last fifty years and this government will also go down in history as another government that surrendered to extremism.
3. Has there been any increase of attacks on Tamil civilians in the South?
There have been marginal increases of attacks on Tamil civilians, however, so far it has not become a dominant feature as in 1983. I believe that evacuation or surrender of government troops in Jaffna may be used by extreme groups to create a situation similar to that of 1983, creating communal violence against Tamils; they may go further and put the blame on the left parties or elements on the pretext that they tried to destabilize the government.
4. The last time Indian assistance was sought in the North the JVP reacted in what is widely seen as an anti-Tamil campaign in the South. Has the JVP changed 13 years later?
My answer would be a ‘no’. But I dispute the statement that the JVP was anti-Tamil. I was in Sri Lanka at the time and the JVP took an anti-Indian stand, which is understandable. The problem was that the JVP did not recognise the right of self-determination of Tamil people in Sri Lanka. They believed that the LTTE was a CIA supported organisation or a RAW supported organisation or a MOSSAD supported organisation; for which reason the LTTE was demanding a separate state for Tamils. Divide and Rule is a policy of world imperialism and so the LTTE is an agent of imperialism trying to divide Sri Lanka. Not only that. The JVP went back on some of their internationalist policies. For example, they withdrew from supporting the East Timorese struggle; they withdrew supporting the Eritrean struggle; These reversals were incorrect from my point of view. When I was the general secretary of the JVP we supported all progressive forces in the world in their struggle to achieve justice and equality.
History has shown that the JVP is wrong in their policy change with regard to right of self-determination. Eritrea and East Timor have become independent nations. The CIA, RAW and MOSSAD have aligned themselves against the LTTE. I do not advocate terrorism or separation of the land of Sri Lanka. I condemn the terrorist acts committed by the government forces, its vigilante and mercenary groups, and the LTTE. I still believe that Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims, Burghers, and others as equals can remain united in the land of Sri Lanka. Tit for Tat violence does not work. What I say is that as human beings we should be able to recognise the fact that it is the Tamil people who should decide whether or not to live together with Sinhalese. Whether to stay together or to separate is a democratic decision of the Tamil people in the North and East of Sri Lanka and cannot be forcefully imposed upon them by any others living outside that land area, whether it be at the gun point of the government forces or that of the LTTE. The way things are unfolding the Tamil people are running out of all options left for them other than the separation; this is because the extreme groups continue to oppose any sharing of power towards achieving equality and justice among peoples of Sri Lanka.
I believe that the JVP should recognise this fact. However so far there is no indication to that effect.
1 November 2006
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